Manchester United brought their worst season since 1989/90 to an end with a thrilling victory over rivals Manchester City in the FA Cup Final, thereby cementing their place in the 2024/25 Europa League. In a match where the Red Devils were the underdogs, they not just beat Pep Guardiola’s all conquering team who had just won their fourth Premier League title in a row, but were clearly the better team. As a result, Manchester United ended the season with their 13th FA Cup trophy and their second in two years.
After such an achievement, it still seems weird that the biggest story is not the victory, but the fate of incumbent manager Erik ten Hag. The Dutch coach’s job should surely be above any kind of scrutiny. Alas, if that were the truth, Manchester United wouldn’t be in the mess in which they find themselves.
In December 2023 it was announced that the British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe controlled Ineos had purchased a 25 per cent stake at the club following months of drama. According the agreement, Ineos Sports Company would take control of football operations at the club.
After a decade of mismanagement by the Glazers that had seen the club fall off its perch, this move was widely welcomed by fans and pundits alike. With the likes of Dave Brailsford, Jean-Claude Blanc, Omar Berrada, Jason Wilcox, and Dan Ashworth (potentially) joining the backroom staff, fans finally have a reason to be excited. Yet, things have not quite gone to plan with regards to the Head Coach.
Why is the manager under pressure?
As mentioned earlier and by everyone else, the 2023/24 season has been an unmitigated disaster for the Manchester United, only slightly redeemed by the FA Cup win. To start off, the club faced an ignominious exit from the Champions league group stages finishing dead last, while Newcastle United knocked them out of the EFL Cup in the fourth round.
Things were worse in the league, with the club losing a record 14 games while also finishing eighth on the points table registering their worst finish to a league season since 1989/90. They also finished with a negative goal difference, a terrible defensive performance with 58 goals conceded, as well having conceded 660 shots on goal – the most of any team this season apart from Sheffield United.
A deeper dive into season statistics only paints a worse picture. The xG of 1.51 per game and they conceded an xGA of 1.73 per game. They had the third most clearances off the line for any team with 7 with a total of 833 clearances. In contrast Manchester City and Arsenal had only 420 and 481 clearances respectively with only 2 and 4 being off the line respectively.
Man Utd have also created only 60 big chances over the season against Liverpool’s 102 and Man City’s 97 big chances created. Their goalkeeper has made 149 saves this season, the fourth highest in the league. This shows how open ended the games were and the overall lack of control.
This was further corroborated by the simple eye test. The style of play was too open ended that led to too many shots conceded. Their Out of Possession (OOP) shape was incoherent which often led to huge gaps in the middle of the pitch and forwards having to cover too much ground to recover.
A typical Man Utd match would start with the team trying to play out from the back for the first 10 minutes before resorting to long balls in the hope that one of the forwards would latch on to it and produce a moment of magic. Similarly, when possession was lost (mostly for cheap) the OOP shape would be so poor that the opponents could easily play around it, thereby leaving it to the defenders and the goalkeeper to make desperate saves.
There have been too many questionable transfers in the last two years which has raised further questions about Ten Hag’s player identification abilities. While the manager can be forgiven for the transfer of Casemiro, he still had a huge say in the acquisition of players like Antony, Mason Mount, Sofiyan Amrabat, and Christian Eriksen. These are the transfers which have not quite worked out the way they were supposed to due to a mix of poor form and injuries.
Tactics have been questionable for a long time. He asked the club to buy Andre Onana to replace David De Gea in order to play out better from the back. However, the team has such a poor shape that the goalkeeper usually has no option but to play long balls. Opponents exploiting gaps through the middle has been a feature for the last 9 months. Despite the obvious flaws, there have been no measures taken to correct them.
There have also been high profile fall outs with players like Jadon Sancho as well as giving Antony a long rope which the Brazilian has decided to trade in for a one dimensional fidget instead.
The Injury Crisis
In the manager’s defense, his team have faced one of the worst injury crisis in recent memory. Their players have had 44 separate injuries, the most of any team this season, missing a combined total of 89 league games between them. Crucial players like Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw, and Raphael Varane have missed large parts of the season thereby forcing the coaching staff to play 14 different combinations in central defense. It seemed any time a player like Harry Maguire or Victor Lindelof stepped up, they would get injured. They even signed veteran Jonny Evan to provide back up and he ended up playing a lot more than he was expected to play. Eventually, even he got injured!
Things were no better in midfield, with Casemiro facing a lengthy layoff early in the season. By the time he came back he looked a shadow of the player who had rescued the club on numerous occasions in the previous season. New signing Mason Mount was no better, having hardly stayed fit this season. Thing got worse when captain Bruno Fernandes got injured towards the end, a period which coincided with one of the club’s worst performances against Crystal Palace.
The medical staff have dropped the ball with their faulty diagnosis with regards to Luke Shaw which resulted in the manager releasing loan signing Reguilon early. Some of the blame could lie on the training intensity and tactics that lead to players covering too much ground in short spans, but it still does not absolve the medical department.
In attack, Rashford has been in indifferent form all season and has even been dropped from the England team. Amad Diallo had a promising pre-season but missed the first 4 months of the season due to injury. The manager was promised the return of Mason Greenwood to solve his right wing problem, which turned out to be a PR disaster for the club.
One good thing that came out of all this is the increased load on young players like Garnacho, Kobbie Mainoo, Rasmus Hojlund, and Willy Kambwala. While youth players should be eased into the senior team, these youngsters showed their mettle when called upon and have established themselves as guaranteed starters going into next season.
According to reports, Ineos will consider the last two seasons in their end of season review to decide the fate of ten Hag. In his first season at the club, Man Utd finished third in the points table while having the third best defensive record in the league, a far cry from his second season. They also won the EFL Cup against Newcastle and lost the FA Cup final to Man City. However, they only scored 58 goals, as compared to 57 goals this season.
He also played a huge role in setting standards around the training ground with his handling of tantrums thrown by the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Jadon Sancho. He has also laid down the law as seen with players like Marcus Rashford who was dropped for turning up late to a team meeting, while Harry Maguire was demoted as captain. This approach has seen the majority of his players rally behind him during these tough times as evidenced in the recent cup final.
Whatever, the circumstances, the Dutch manager has won two trophies in two years – more than Arsenal and Liverpool.
Fan opinions
If they had been asked before the FA Cup final, a huge section of the fans would have wanted the manager out. They would not have been blamed either given the humiliating loss against Crystal palace earlier this month. Watching rivals Manchester City make history with their fourth title on the trot or the prospect of Liverpool winning their 20th have made the season unbearable for the supporters.
However, after the rousing victory, fans are unequivocally backing the manager. They are also sympathetic to the fact that most of the mess in the club is not the responsibility of the manager. They also understand the injury crisis and have even drawn equivalence to how Louis Van Gaal was sacked in 2016.
Fans also love the way the way the FA Cup campaign has played out, where they spoiled Jurgen Klopp’s farewell season with Liverpool and denied Chelsea and Newcastle a place in the Europa League (provided Ineos can convince UEFA there is no conflict of interest with OGC Nice).
Goes to show you how fickle fans can be. One game should not decide anything, even if it an FA Cup final win over your biggest rivals.
Why would Ineos want to sack a popular manager?
For starters, Erik ten hag was not appointed by the new owners. In their eyes, he is a part of their history. A history of mismanagement and amateurish transfer decisions which have seen the club become the laughing stock of the football world. While, there is no doubt they rate him highly, they would also like to make their own mark in the club with a manager that their experts in the boardroom have identified and thoroughly vetted.
It is also obvious that the new management structure will ensure the head coach has lesser say in transfer dealings which may not sit well with ten Hag. It is also possible that Sir Jim Ratcliffe might want the club to adopt a completely different style of play which the current manager might not be suited to implement.
The most obvious reason would be the terrible season that the club have endured. Even taking into account the injuries, it was a train wreck to put it lightly. Not a single soul in the club can possibly deny that.
The Manager’s reaction
Reports of the club sacking Ten Hag and approaching potential replacements were leaked barely a day before the FA Cup final, something which irked a lot of the fans and the manager. While it is within their right to seek a change, the club should have stood by their manager when these reports came out. Their lack of doing so, even at the risk of it derailing the team’s preparation for the big game was alarming and shows the club has a long way to go before fixing the rotten culture.
While initially showing surprise, Ten hag showed his elite mentality by not allowing these reports to affect his tactics or the players. After the win, he came out fighting, promising to win titles elsewhere if he were sacked. He had a point to prove and he did so in style.
The players are also equally responsible for the season, with many senior players like Casemiro, Amrabat, and Eriksen forgetting how to play football. However, on the final day they played their hearts out for the manager when he needed it the most.
Should the manager be sacked?
It is understandable that the fans would back the manager, but they should also stop casting aspersions on the new owners. For years, fans have wanted a competent management which makes decisions based on data rather than emotions or profits. If the new owners were to be influenced by one game, no matter how big that game was, it would be two steps backward for the club.
That being said, the names being floated around as replacements – Thomas Tuchel, Kieran Mckenna and Mauricio Pochettino, would not exactly be a change in approach for the club. These managers have similar principles of play to the incumbent coach and there is no guarantee they would have done any better under the circumstances. Apart from Mckenna, Tuchel and Pochettino are known to be combative and would want greater control over the transfers. Mckenna, while being the dream appointment, is perceived to be too young for the role and probably needs a season (or two) of coaching experience in the Premier League before making the jump to Manchester United.
At this stage, the only appointment that would make sense would be Roberto de Zerbi or someone like him, who is a possession obsessed coach. Should the management want the club to play that brand of football going forward, there is no better coach available in the market. This would also require a drastic overhaul of the team, with most players not being suited to a possession heavy approach. The management would have to be patient if results do not go their way in the first season.
The management absolutely has the right to judge the Head Coach, especially after a terrible season. However, the way the news was leaked and the reaction (or lack of it) showed that Ineos still has a long way to go before they can clean up the rotten culture around the club. On their part, they should have made this decision several weeks back with the announcement being made earlier, so that everyone involved can transition into the new era without any hassles. Therefore, it does not bode well that the club is only now conducting a review to determine the fate of Erik Ten Hag.
The coaching staff have dealt with injuries, poor recruitment, and high profile players throwing tantrums in the last two years. They have two trophies, a third place finish, and the promotion of exciting young talent like Garnacho, Mainoo, Hojlund to show for their troubles. Ten Hag has laid down the law, placing the club before any individual no matter how good their abilities. He has stuck to his principles and promoted youth where others would have gone back to proven methods aka park the bus.
However, the system has been too open ended, leading to players covering loads of space in short bursts which could have made the injury crisis worse. There has also been an overreliance on Bruno Fernandes to create chances along with poor game management which has not helped his case. Nevertheless, he is also the most successful manager post Sir Alex Ferguson and has won 2 out of the 5 major trophies the club has won since 2013. He ended the club’s six year trophy drought in 2023 and brought back discipline to a club where it seemed players could get away with murder. Not bad for someone who was deemed to have “poor communication’ by Daniel Levy.
DribbleSensei Verdict: Erik Ten Hag deserves one more season at Manchester United. He still has the highest win percentage of any Man Utd manager including the great Alex Ferguson and has won two trophies. It is highly unlikely that any manager would have done better given the injury crisis and the ownership change in the middle of the season. He should be backed with proper recruitment next season as well as wholesale clearance of deadwood. Imagine what he could achieve if were to be backed properly. It would be a shame to sack an elite coach like Ten Hag without offering him a chance at redemption.
